It’s time for more mathematics after some data gathering. This time we will take a deeper look on the performance of the movies on both the financial end and also the critical end of the business, with more advanced math than the previous article to keep things interesting.
On the financial side, I have decided to use the first six weeks of a film domestic running life in the cinema instead of the full life because some of them are still in the theaters. Six weeks should give us enough time to differentiate between the film’s financial performance clear enough and should be pretty accurate as there’s not going to be much surprise from seventh week onward. Let’s give it the term “6W”.
For the films without critic ratings, it will be considered as “0” in my critical ratings calculation. A bit harsh but it’s unfair to others no matter whatever number I put aside from that.
- Top 3 Highest 6W Gross: Fallout($519,808,474), Sepulveda($342,313,643), Sandman($322,278,486)
- Top 3 Lowest 6W Gross: Contention($54,372,732), Siren($60,480,626), L.A. Noire 2($76,119,813)
- Highest Critical Score: Fallout(90.00), Sandman(85.30), Wild Horses(84.90)
- Lowest Critical Score: The League of Dumba$$ Dogs(1.00), The Lunch Monster Movie(21.50), Shriek(28.00)
- 6W Gross Average: $172,518,002
- Critical Average: 44.42
- Above 6W Gross Average: 14 films
- Below 6W Gross Average: 26 films
- Above Critical Average: 24 films
- Below Critical Average: 16 films
- Highest 6W Gross: Speak Like A Child($331,867,977), The X-Files: The Willmore File($246,626,644), The Massacre: Conspiracy Theorum($206,356,586)
- Lowest 6W Gross: Fatal Frame: Moonchild($50,093,652), Fawlty Towers($63,884,605), Even If The World Ends($66,332,561)
- Highest Critical Score: Speak Like A Child(93.50), Transylvana(92.10), Still Life(87.00)
- Lowest Critical Score: Dexter(1.00), Scream 5(2.20), Elder Scrolls: A Dance in Fire(15.40)
- 6W Gross Average: $125,028,719
- Critical Average: 50.84
- Above 6W Gross Average: 19 films
- Below 6W Gross Average: 20 films
- Above Critical Average: 21 films
- Below Critical Average: 18 films
While the first half of 2012 sees some decent improvement on the critical rating, which is up 14.45%, shows that the quality of the films is indeed improving. However, the grossing figure isn’t what a studio would want, dropping over a quarter with a rate of 27.53%. Not really a healthy rate if you consider that the ratio between the critical gain and the gross drop is roughly 1:2. So, one needs to drop around 2% of gross just to gain 1% of critic score, which is bad as the 2% is a drop and keeping it at a minimum of 1:1 will be at least more acceptable in a way of equal trade. Of course, a double increase will be the best scenario but that isn’t what we have right now.
On the other hand, one can explain it by looking at the top 3 of 2H 2011, they are just too huge of blockbusters, which leads to an overall increase of the average. This is further proven by the fact that only 14 films are above the average with 26 under average. The top few really are on another level, forcing the average to rise above the standard 20 above and 20 below. Another factor is that we have a lot of new production companies starting up in 1H 2012 so it’s only fair to gross a bit less due to the limitation of ad budgets, which can be obtained by purchasing items from shopping and new production companies don’t really have much of them in the mean time. One more reason in my own opinion is the lack of huge movies. Fallout and Sandman really gave you a WOW feeling, and we are not really finding too much of that in the 1H of 2012. The scale of movies, as showcased in my previous “HTG Fun With Math“, does contribute to my lack of huge movie viewpoint as in this semiannual we have more shorts than features and shorts normally tend to gross less. An abnormal example will be Sepulveda, top 2 grossing movie in 2H 2011.
On the good side, despite the higher critical average in 1H 2012, more than half of the films are able to top it so props to the overall performance in that half of the year. Let’s hope that the top 3 lowest critical score can be higher next time to retain a higher critical average. Going by the top 3, we can see that the scale of critical rating in 1H 2012 is wider, with a range of 93.50 – 1.00 and higher/lower on both end of top 3. That indicates perhaps a higher variety of scores but perhaps more scores are on the 60-70 range or maybe the lower scores are sticking to the 30-40 range instead of too many in the 20-30 range. It is a good sight for a writing game since critical score probably matters more here.
With such a low average on the grossing side, I believe we can raise it back up by the end of the year and I hope that the critical average can at the very least, retain itself. In the next article, we will examine more in depth the studio and production company performances.
Tags: Fallout, Fun With Math, Sandman, Sepulveda